I've been rather busy with work, and can no longer watch these as closely as I once did. I am still trading, but do not have time to scan every night and watch as meticulously as I once did. I would recommend a website, which I do follow of:
http://flippingpennystocks.com/
I hope to be back at some point and make some cash. Ended with a nice 13.9% overall return from the starting point in rather short period of time. Not enough to pay the bills, so until I can make what I make at my regular job, its spending cash and extra taxes for Uncle Sam.
Thursday, September 30, 2010
Wednesday, May 12, 2010
SCLN Closed Out
I closed out this afternoon at $4.0101, too big of a run to not have a correction. Its basically gotten back to where it was before those two bloody days, not really feeling like risking the profits.
Been Busy
I have been really busy with work, and haven't been able to post updates etc, so here is quick logging of some trades I've made:
ASTC
I made a stupid, stupid entry at $2.66 thinking it was sold off way too much and it was more out of boredom, I had no analysis as to why to enter here, and had no stop loss entered. Tanks to $2.26 on that bloody Thursday/Friday last week, I pick up more to average in at $2.46. 1200 at $2.66, 1200 at $2.26. Sold at $2.57 on Monday for +$222. This was a horrible trade and the sell was even more of a 'get me the hell out of this'.
SCLN
I need to post a chart to give me better analysis, this was also another somewhat ill-conceived trade. I had an alert for this at $3.51 on some support I drew up long ago. I watched it intra-day and it looked like it had bottomed out at $3.36 earlier, so I bought when more support was forming at $3.48. Still holding, as I watched it drop to the $3.20s. Again, no real hard analysis on this, just saw it was incredibly oversold, and hitting my support range. So I bought 1000 at $3.48.
TLR
I should have sold this one off, but considering I locked in some profits on it already, I felt it was okay to give it some time to consolidate and it actually held up pretty well during the huge sell-off. I again have no plan of action!
I need to re-evaluate my positions and get a plan in soon. Just no time to do so right now. Luckily, these have held their ground so far.
ASTC
I made a stupid, stupid entry at $2.66 thinking it was sold off way too much and it was more out of boredom, I had no analysis as to why to enter here, and had no stop loss entered. Tanks to $2.26 on that bloody Thursday/Friday last week, I pick up more to average in at $2.46. 1200 at $2.66, 1200 at $2.26. Sold at $2.57 on Monday for +$222. This was a horrible trade and the sell was even more of a 'get me the hell out of this'.
SCLN
I need to post a chart to give me better analysis, this was also another somewhat ill-conceived trade. I had an alert for this at $3.51 on some support I drew up long ago. I watched it intra-day and it looked like it had bottomed out at $3.36 earlier, so I bought when more support was forming at $3.48. Still holding, as I watched it drop to the $3.20s. Again, no real hard analysis on this, just saw it was incredibly oversold, and hitting my support range. So I bought 1000 at $3.48.
TLR
I should have sold this one off, but considering I locked in some profits on it already, I felt it was okay to give it some time to consolidate and it actually held up pretty well during the huge sell-off. I again have no plan of action!
I need to re-evaluate my positions and get a plan in soon. Just no time to do so right now. Luckily, these have held their ground so far.
Saturday, May 1, 2010
TLR
The tiny pullback yesterday on large volume gave me the impression people were still buying in this range - almost like shares were exchanging hands. Today we regained what we lost yesterday again on large volume. It seems as interest has picked up on this stock and I feel like I need to let it play out. If it ends up leaving money on the table then so be it, there is just something about how this stock is moving that gives me the feeling there is more upside .... but so did URZ - which I must say ended up closing yesterday up much higher than where I sold, but trickled down again today. Exiting that position is a good move, but sucks that I could have done so much cheaper. Need to stick with the stop losses.
Thursday, April 29, 2010
URZ - Ouch
I stopped out of this one, I gave it more leeway then I wanted.... mistake. Out at $1.62 about, $300 loss. Doesn't feel good, but hopefully it was the right choice. It dropped to $1.54, but is rebounding slightly now. Just way too heavy of a sell-off. I really liked this one for the upside too. I'll have to re-evaluate the chart to see if there is something I should have seen. For one, my first instinct of $1.71 support was where I should have tried entering as opposed to $1.76, but the risk to reward was good I thought. I just didn't exit where I said I would. I don't think I had much of a chance once it did break $1.71. Pissed off....
Wednesday, April 28, 2010
TLR - Updated Chart
Well, the little pause in volume at which I sold my half position turned out to be a good choice in that I did not simply exit the entire thing. This whole setup was a pennant/flag continuation pattern which to me screamed to break to the upside. However, it very well could have bounced from this point and waited longer to breakout. I don't mind locking in profits when I did, especially on the order of a few hundred, so I can't complain, but the stock took off up to $1.33 and closed pretty much at the high of the day. Here is the updated chart.
So to reiterate the rational, the green solid line was support and the red overhead was the resistance trends of the pennant I had drawn up. The horizontal black dash lines were additional areas I deemed support. My entry was when the two touched together at $1.05.
The next area of resistance I can see is actually where we are sitting right now in the $1.31-$1.34 area. I'm going to give it a little room, but seeing as we are now also outside the upper bollinger band that typically is not sustainable. The past large moves seem to indicate that a slight pullback may be in order. I'll give it a chance to gap up tomorrow and run a little further, but I plan to have a short leash on this tomorrow. I am hoping for another solid green candle at which point I'd probably cut my risk and get out. I won't have access to the markets except on my phone tomorrow so, I might toss in either a stop-loss or trailing-stop on this guy.
URZ
Pretty quiet, holding on pretty good to this $1.71 support I pegged initially. Why didn't I just wait until support?
So to reiterate the rational, the green solid line was support and the red overhead was the resistance trends of the pennant I had drawn up. The horizontal black dash lines were additional areas I deemed support. My entry was when the two touched together at $1.05.
The next area of resistance I can see is actually where we are sitting right now in the $1.31-$1.34 area. I'm going to give it a little room, but seeing as we are now also outside the upper bollinger band that typically is not sustainable. The past large moves seem to indicate that a slight pullback may be in order. I'll give it a chance to gap up tomorrow and run a little further, but I plan to have a short leash on this tomorrow. I am hoping for another solid green candle at which point I'd probably cut my risk and get out. I won't have access to the markets except on my phone tomorrow so, I might toss in either a stop-loss or trailing-stop on this guy.
URZ
Pretty quiet, holding on pretty good to this $1.71 support I pegged initially. Why didn't I just wait until support?
TLR - Sold Half the Position
I sold half of the position this afternoon at $1.20 as it starts hitting its head up on that overhanging trend line. There is a ton of volume right now, but its got potential to bounce off of this line and trickle back down. Decided to lock in some profits as the buying slowed up. So total shares sold was 1400.
MGI
Wow, that was good exit on my part. That daily candle was just shaping up to show so much weakness I felt... glad I went with my instinct. Turned a $200 profit into $30, but definitely saved myself from a $150 loss.....
MGI
Wow, that was good exit on my part. That daily candle was just shaping up to show so much weakness I felt... glad I went with my instinct. Turned a $200 profit into $30, but definitely saved myself from a $150 loss.....
Tuesday, April 27, 2010
Closed MGI - Holding others...
MGI
Haven't had much time for the markets lately, really ugly day today overall I must say. MGI was looking great today and I thought I had nailed another one, but its fun was short lived. After reaching a intra-day high of $3.51, it sunk back to the mid $3.30s by end of day. I was getting trigger happy at about $3.40 and should have fired there, but by days end the candle looks horrible to me. It seems to indicate that the $3.40-$3.50 mark was rejected heavily, and its come back down. I decided I didn't want to hold this for tomorrow, and to get out while I could. I closed at $3.35. Another fact for me selling this is that earnings are coming on Friday. Earnings completely throw out most TA out the window. A big gap down could just crush my account, and I'm not here to gamble. I should have investigated that before buying into this. So, I'm out with a $30 gain, sad when was close to $200 at one point.
TLR
TLR pulled back yesterday after its nice surge and grabbed some of it back today. I'm still liking this one to hopefully try to test the upper trendline, and will make a decision there as to how strong it looks.
URZ
Not looking so hot, but it did come back to bounce out of that low $1.70 range. I'm sitting at a loss on this one and it doesn't have much more room to go lower before I'm bailing.
Haven't had much time for the markets lately, really ugly day today overall I must say. MGI was looking great today and I thought I had nailed another one, but its fun was short lived. After reaching a intra-day high of $3.51, it sunk back to the mid $3.30s by end of day. I was getting trigger happy at about $3.40 and should have fired there, but by days end the candle looks horrible to me. It seems to indicate that the $3.40-$3.50 mark was rejected heavily, and its come back down. I decided I didn't want to hold this for tomorrow, and to get out while I could. I closed at $3.35. Another fact for me selling this is that earnings are coming on Friday. Earnings completely throw out most TA out the window. A big gap down could just crush my account, and I'm not here to gamble. I should have investigated that before buying into this. So, I'm out with a $30 gain, sad when was close to $200 at one point.
TLR
TLR pulled back yesterday after its nice surge and grabbed some of it back today. I'm still liking this one to hopefully try to test the upper trendline, and will make a decision there as to how strong it looks.
URZ
Not looking so hot, but it did come back to bounce out of that low $1.70 range. I'm sitting at a loss on this one and it doesn't have much more room to go lower before I'm bailing.
Friday, April 23, 2010
MGI - Second Chance at Entry
This is looking really good as an entry point again, I think I am going to jump in here, just want to see it stabilize a bit and then going in for about 1k shares here.
UPDATE:
Looking good, lots of bids at $3.29 and $3.28, $3.30 supply is slowly grinding down, I'm in for 1000 at $3.30.
So, to make sure I have a plan, my exit is going to be the 50ma which is right around $3.21, but a break of this trendline will have me itching to dump this. The horizontal and ascending trenline are meeting up almost perfect here so a break of one is pretty much the break of both which would be bad. So, that is about a 3.3% downside loss. Our short term goal is to reach the $3.80 range, but will have to watch this closely. It tried to get past the $3.44 range this week but ran into trouble. If it stalls there, I may bail depending on the date... I'll let the ascending trendline help as support and a decision for exiting the position.
UPDATE:
Looking good, lots of bids at $3.29 and $3.28, $3.30 supply is slowly grinding down, I'm in for 1000 at $3.30.
So, to make sure I have a plan, my exit is going to be the 50ma which is right around $3.21, but a break of this trendline will have me itching to dump this. The horizontal and ascending trenline are meeting up almost perfect here so a break of one is pretty much the break of both which would be bad. So, that is about a 3.3% downside loss. Our short term goal is to reach the $3.80 range, but will have to watch this closely. It tried to get past the $3.44 range this week but ran into trouble. If it stalls there, I may bail depending on the date... I'll let the ascending trendline help as support and a decision for exiting the position.
Observations so far this Morning
TLR
Strong volume so far, perhaps making the next leg up. Close to approaching the 10% mark on this one, but there is still quite a bit of room to run, the strong volume is encouraging as well.
URZ
Trickling back down to entry price, kind of hurts, but, this would be a good entry again. Flipping this from $1.76 to $1.84 could net some 5% gains or so or a few hundred off of my position size. Since I'm trading mostly in my Roth IRA, I'd have issues with settled funds I think. I'll just hold on while this one holds to my support. The upside is big on this one in my opinion.
FLOW
My friend FLOW - kind of makes me sick seeing this one. I went back and looked at the charts to see what I could have done differently. The only thing I can think of is turning these into longer holds until my thesis played out. But the two candles that shook me out did look like weakness in all fairness. But man, this could have been a big gainer.
ASTC
Wow, this one fell hard. All those black body candles were a warning sign in my opinion and I am glad I nailed my exit at a pretty good point. Could be worth watching a little more, but that ascending trendline is broken now, which kind of throws off my original trade entry criteria. I'll be watching this at the support levels of $3.20 and $3.05 as potential re-entries if it trickles down or on a really hard fall.
Strong volume so far, perhaps making the next leg up. Close to approaching the 10% mark on this one, but there is still quite a bit of room to run, the strong volume is encouraging as well.
URZ
Trickling back down to entry price, kind of hurts, but, this would be a good entry again. Flipping this from $1.76 to $1.84 could net some 5% gains or so or a few hundred off of my position size. Since I'm trading mostly in my Roth IRA, I'd have issues with settled funds I think. I'll just hold on while this one holds to my support. The upside is big on this one in my opinion.
FLOW
My friend FLOW - kind of makes me sick seeing this one. I went back and looked at the charts to see what I could have done differently. The only thing I can think of is turning these into longer holds until my thesis played out. But the two candles that shook me out did look like weakness in all fairness. But man, this could have been a big gainer.
ASTC
Wow, this one fell hard. All those black body candles were a warning sign in my opinion and I am glad I nailed my exit at a pretty good point. Could be worth watching a little more, but that ascending trendline is broken now, which kind of throws off my original trade entry criteria. I'll be watching this at the support levels of $3.20 and $3.05 as potential re-entries if it trickles down or on a really hard fall.
Thursday, April 22, 2010
Quiet - Still holding TLR, URZ
Not much to update, both are still in this bottom area holding onto support. Today was an odd day in the markets where it looked like I was going to have to bail on these, but they came back. I haven't been able to be watching the markets all that much, so I am enjoying these plays just riding out.
Haven't done scans last few days either, today was probably a good day to find some that may have trickled down to support levels. Will wait for the weekend and go through the exchanges.
Haven't done scans last few days either, today was probably a good day to find some that may have trickled down to support levels. Will wait for the weekend and go through the exchanges.
Tuesday, April 20, 2010
Daily Wrapup - ASTC, TLR, URZ, and MGI
ASTC
Closed this position for reasons I stated previously. The stock did hold the $3.39 support from the hourly chart, and closed just below the trendline I had drawn. Not complaining about this trade, all these black body candles scare me. I don't see a good entry on this again until it comes back to where I bought it previously but then again, it would completely break the trendline. Most likely, this is off my radar.
TLR
Came back down a few points but still within the flag/pennant so still in play. Looked like some upward movement this morning, but trickled back down. Trailing stop is now trickling up with the trendline. Tomorrow a close below $1.03 on significant volume is my exit, that's a break past the $1.04-$1.05 horizontal support plus the lower trendline.
URZ
Looking good, high $1.90's is next range I am watching which would be a nice profit as is, but this could have legs to get back to $2.30 eventually. I have drawn horizontal support at $1.71 area, but I can't let that try down there again. Not after going green. I'll look for intra-day support at $1.76 to hold as my exit to get out with a tiny loss, and if it does keep dropping trying to buy in cheaper. Not sure it would be worth it at that point considering commission costs would start adding up.
MGI
Well, I didn't get out of ASTC fast enough to get in on MGI early but it pretty much went right as planned. It bounced off the horizontal support and was up pretty good today - closing at $3.41 or up 3.3%. Next area of resistance is probably in the low $3.60s with the higher hopes of $3.80s. I don't know if I would like this one anymore if it does come back down - I think today was the bounce to play.
Watchlist
Today was a somewhat large green day for the stocks on my watchlist which usually means I am not going to like many for an entry. I don't even really have any on my radar right now that I am waiting for the right entry. I try to keep an eye one them during the day but sometimes work precludes that from happening.
Closed this position for reasons I stated previously. The stock did hold the $3.39 support from the hourly chart, and closed just below the trendline I had drawn. Not complaining about this trade, all these black body candles scare me. I don't see a good entry on this again until it comes back to where I bought it previously but then again, it would completely break the trendline. Most likely, this is off my radar.
TLR
Came back down a few points but still within the flag/pennant so still in play. Looked like some upward movement this morning, but trickled back down. Trailing stop is now trickling up with the trendline. Tomorrow a close below $1.03 on significant volume is my exit, that's a break past the $1.04-$1.05 horizontal support plus the lower trendline.
URZ
Looking good, high $1.90's is next range I am watching which would be a nice profit as is, but this could have legs to get back to $2.30 eventually. I have drawn horizontal support at $1.71 area, but I can't let that try down there again. Not after going green. I'll look for intra-day support at $1.76 to hold as my exit to get out with a tiny loss, and if it does keep dropping trying to buy in cheaper. Not sure it would be worth it at that point considering commission costs would start adding up.
MGI
Well, I didn't get out of ASTC fast enough to get in on MGI early but it pretty much went right as planned. It bounced off the horizontal support and was up pretty good today - closing at $3.41 or up 3.3%. Next area of resistance is probably in the low $3.60s with the higher hopes of $3.80s. I don't know if I would like this one anymore if it does come back down - I think today was the bounce to play.
Watchlist
Today was a somewhat large green day for the stocks on my watchlist which usually means I am not going to like many for an entry. I don't even really have any on my radar right now that I am waiting for the right entry. I try to keep an eye one them during the day but sometimes work precludes that from happening.
ASTC Closed
I just hadn't been getting a good feeling from this stock as it typically gaps up and then sells off during the day and then gets a late push into close. Today gapped up to $3.58 and there was a large bid at $3.55 and I took that as my chance to get out easily. I don't know if this one is done yet, but intra-day this is pretty volatile and making me uncomfortable, so I locked in +$300 profits, and will keep an eye on it. Unfortunately, I would have liked to get these funds into MGI but it sort of shot up this morning with just about every other stock in the market. I'll be watching it closely, or perhaps might make a day trade off of ASTC hoping it repeats the past few days of mid-day dips and strong close. There are typically large buys and sells right out the gate and coming into close, so it does seem like someone is grabbing the shares up.
Also, since I had to bring in more funds in order to trade three positions at once, I've increase my 'starting amount' to $9500, at end of day I'm just gonna make it an even $10k to make the math easier. But so far off to a realized 7% gain in about 3 weeks - compounded annually and that's about $30k... likely impossible to keep up....
Also, since I had to bring in more funds in order to trade three positions at once, I've increase my 'starting amount' to $9500, at end of day I'm just gonna make it an even $10k to make the math easier. But so far off to a realized 7% gain in about 3 weeks - compounded annually and that's about $30k... likely impossible to keep up....
Monday, April 19, 2010
MGI - Good Entry
MGI
Today's somewhat down markets took a lot of the stocks I have on a bigger watchlist down. Most notably was MGI's few percentage drop. I was actually hoping it would slide down a little slower so that some funds would free up. However, today it sunk a little below the $3.30 horizontal support but not quite touching the ascending trendline. I think this is a perfect entry right here and if I didn't have $10k already in these types of plays, I'd probably add this to my holdings. Best case scenario is this hangs out at $3.30 area until it meets the ascending trendline and by then one of the others have hit their target price and I've sold. If not, I probably will just go ahead and purchase anyhow.
The thought process on this one is the long term resistance at $3.30 was broken about a month ago and its now coming back to test that as support. In addition, there is an ascending trendline forming that just happens to be meeting in this general area. Today it was at about $3.23 and a close below that plus the $3.30 would be the stop loss. The high from the last peak is in the $4.00 range, but looking at the opens/closes on the daily chart, the $3.80 area is probably an okay target. So, we have a downside stop loss at about 2.5% and upside closer towards 15%, giving this an apparent 6:1 risk to reward ratio. This seems like a strong play right here. I am waiting as of right now, but will likely miss this one.
Today's somewhat down markets took a lot of the stocks I have on a bigger watchlist down. Most notably was MGI's few percentage drop. I was actually hoping it would slide down a little slower so that some funds would free up. However, today it sunk a little below the $3.30 horizontal support but not quite touching the ascending trendline. I think this is a perfect entry right here and if I didn't have $10k already in these types of plays, I'd probably add this to my holdings. Best case scenario is this hangs out at $3.30 area until it meets the ascending trendline and by then one of the others have hit their target price and I've sold. If not, I probably will just go ahead and purchase anyhow.
The thought process on this one is the long term resistance at $3.30 was broken about a month ago and its now coming back to test that as support. In addition, there is an ascending trendline forming that just happens to be meeting in this general area. Today it was at about $3.23 and a close below that plus the $3.30 would be the stop loss. The high from the last peak is in the $4.00 range, but looking at the opens/closes on the daily chart, the $3.80 area is probably an okay target. So, we have a downside stop loss at about 2.5% and upside closer towards 15%, giving this an apparent 6:1 risk to reward ratio. This seems like a strong play right here. I am waiting as of right now, but will likely miss this one.
URZ Dipped This Morning
I was able to get into URZ for 2100 shares at $1.76 this morning. There was large orders at $1.75 on Level 2, giving me a little more confidence in that being support area. It seems to be stabilizing in this area, and I am hoping for it to start the move up.
Friday, April 16, 2010
Morning Update
Kind of ugly so far, ASTC jumped a few ticks right out the gate but has fallen hard through support and is now sitting back up on it. I think my patience might be wearing thin with this one. Hard to stomach these swings.
ULR dropped quickly this morning hitting a low of $1.01, perhaps I should have given this one another day or so to creep lower and get a better entry. If I could have gotten in at $1.02 or so, that's $90 lower in initial cost. We'll let it play out, almost seems like this one could be scalped for a few percentage points during the day. Anyhow, this morning seems like it would be a significantly better entry limiting the risk even further and a ton of upside... damn.
ULR dropped quickly this morning hitting a low of $1.01, perhaps I should have given this one another day or so to creep lower and get a better entry. If I could have gotten in at $1.02 or so, that's $90 lower in initial cost. We'll let it play out, almost seems like this one could be scalped for a few percentage points during the day. Anyhow, this morning seems like it would be a significantly better entry limiting the risk even further and a ton of upside... damn.
Thursday, April 15, 2010
Missed Trades: CRDC, Maybe URZ?
URZ
Yesterday I was mad at myself for not entering URZ at $1.77, and today it closed up to $1.84, not a huge gain, but a few hundred for a days hold already with plenty of upside. I am just hoping it decides it wants to come back and test here tomorrow or at least pulls back and tests early next week and I'll load up. I'll probably add more funds to my starting $5400, but I free'd up some cash from some losers this week that I held way too long but was lucky enough to get out positive. Losers like that are exactly why I started this blog to record my thoughts, the reasons for entering, and where I want to exit for both profit and loss. So far, this has been very helpful.
CRDC
Yesterday, I decided to take this off the watchlist because the flag/pennant was forming too tight of a range and I didn't have a good way to measure the upside. Oops. Up 31% at close (up 50% at one point), I was waiting for it to come down another $0.06 cents.... to the bottom trendline, but a look back at the hourly chart and for last three weeks we had a pretty nice base at $1.87. The other reason I removed it was due to the pure lack of volume, I would have had to enter with 10% of the total day's volume on some days, and that had me worried about an exit if the trade turned sour. I could have also played it on a break right through $2.00 and use it as the stop if the breakout didn't hold... lots of things I did wrong, and will need to learn from, could have been an easy $1k or more today. Chart is below and am hoping that maybe ASTC can follow this same pattern. I am also going to keep this guy on the watchlist as a potential flag setup once again. It's likely to once again slowly pullback either to this trendline or the 50ma, and bounce back off of it which could be profitable. We'll see how it plays out.
Yesterday I was mad at myself for not entering URZ at $1.77, and today it closed up to $1.84, not a huge gain, but a few hundred for a days hold already with plenty of upside. I am just hoping it decides it wants to come back and test here tomorrow or at least pulls back and tests early next week and I'll load up. I'll probably add more funds to my starting $5400, but I free'd up some cash from some losers this week that I held way too long but was lucky enough to get out positive. Losers like that are exactly why I started this blog to record my thoughts, the reasons for entering, and where I want to exit for both profit and loss. So far, this has been very helpful.
CRDC
Yesterday, I decided to take this off the watchlist because the flag/pennant was forming too tight of a range and I didn't have a good way to measure the upside. Oops. Up 31% at close (up 50% at one point), I was waiting for it to come down another $0.06 cents.... to the bottom trendline, but a look back at the hourly chart and for last three weeks we had a pretty nice base at $1.87. The other reason I removed it was due to the pure lack of volume, I would have had to enter with 10% of the total day's volume on some days, and that had me worried about an exit if the trade turned sour. I could have also played it on a break right through $2.00 and use it as the stop if the breakout didn't hold... lots of things I did wrong, and will need to learn from, could have been an easy $1k or more today. Chart is below and am hoping that maybe ASTC can follow this same pattern. I am also going to keep this guy on the watchlist as a potential flag setup once again. It's likely to once again slowly pullback either to this trendline or the 50ma, and bounce back off of it which could be profitable. We'll see how it plays out.
Purchased TLR, ASTC Update
TLR
I entered a limit order yesterday at $1.05, and did same thing again today and ended up getting filled in. I may have liked to watch it confirm this support range down here, but a few weeks ago it tested this area and bounced as well, so that was good enough for me. My stop loss here is going to be triggered around a break of $1.02, giving it some room to fluctuate so for good measure we'll say $0.99 for tomorrow, but I plan to keep increasing this as I want that bottom trendline to hold, but may make a sacrifice of using the $1.04 support if it falls outside a few days. Target area is going to be in the $1.20 range, but the goal here is to breakout out of the flag/symmetrical triangle/whatever you want to call it, and bust new highs.
ASTC
Pretty wild day if you watched every tick, I thought I was about to be forced out of this trade, but that $3.39 was tested and held its ground. The stock would drift lower on low volume and once it was there, it was soaked up with strong buys pushing it higher. The bid seems fairly thin at times which is scary as I am not sure I can unload all 1000 shares at the same bid price, I may have to break apart this sale, or spread it across two sell prices with a market order. We dipped a bit below the trendline (and actually looking closer $3.39 - glad I didn't see that). We recovered back inside, and if all goes well should be testing this $3.65ish area of resistance that it hasn't been able to break and stay above. It might be hard to hold onto this guy up at $3.65 without selling as that would mark a $400 gain or so, but this might have more legs if it does break strongly. Stop loss is convincing break of $3.39 support as before.
I entered a limit order yesterday at $1.05, and did same thing again today and ended up getting filled in. I may have liked to watch it confirm this support range down here, but a few weeks ago it tested this area and bounced as well, so that was good enough for me. My stop loss here is going to be triggered around a break of $1.02, giving it some room to fluctuate so for good measure we'll say $0.99 for tomorrow, but I plan to keep increasing this as I want that bottom trendline to hold, but may make a sacrifice of using the $1.04 support if it falls outside a few days. Target area is going to be in the $1.20 range, but the goal here is to breakout out of the flag/symmetrical triangle/whatever you want to call it, and bust new highs.
ASTC
Pretty wild day if you watched every tick, I thought I was about to be forced out of this trade, but that $3.39 was tested and held its ground. The stock would drift lower on low volume and once it was there, it was soaked up with strong buys pushing it higher. The bid seems fairly thin at times which is scary as I am not sure I can unload all 1000 shares at the same bid price, I may have to break apart this sale, or spread it across two sell prices with a market order. We dipped a bit below the trendline (and actually looking closer $3.39 - glad I didn't see that). We recovered back inside, and if all goes well should be testing this $3.65ish area of resistance that it hasn't been able to break and stay above. It might be hard to hold onto this guy up at $3.65 without selling as that would mark a $400 gain or so, but this might have more legs if it does break strongly. Stop loss is convincing break of $3.39 support as before.
Wednesday, April 14, 2010
Watchlist Additions - TLR, URZ
Just quick notes on what I'm seeing on my limited watchlist. I had a bunch of others on there, but I really didn't like their setups anymore, so I removed them for now.
TLR
This one has a flag/pennant forming which can be seen as a continuation pattern on this guy. The overall trend is up, so continuation should mean this guy breaks out of it soon. If the flag pattern doesn't have any forbearance, I'm also seeing support at around $1.05, right below 50ma. I was very tempted today at purchasing at $1.09 which would have been one tick off the low, but the lower band of the flag is about $1.00, so I would have been looking at a 10% downside for my stop - too much risk with realistic upside at mini-resistance of $1.28, but the descending trendline of the flag much closer. I put an order in for $1.05 today, and obviously didn't get filled. Hopefully, we can get an order in the next few days or it gives us a nice drop to that bottom trendline.
URZ
This one requires a little more zoomed out picture to see the $1.71ish support. Its been used quite a bit to bounce off of a while ago, failed to hold, and then eventually broke back through, re-tested, and is now making a second retest. Added bonus is 50ma crossing 200ma, and both are meeting up right above that $1.71 support. I'm looking for an entry in the mid $1.70s, this looks to provide huge risk-to-reward ratio with upper resistance at $2.28ish its almost a 8:1 advantage. Actually now doing the math on this, I am mad I didn't even try to get filled today, I could have upticked to $1.77/$1.78 all morning and filled easily... hopefully I don't miss out on this.
TLR
This one has a flag/pennant forming which can be seen as a continuation pattern on this guy. The overall trend is up, so continuation should mean this guy breaks out of it soon. If the flag pattern doesn't have any forbearance, I'm also seeing support at around $1.05, right below 50ma. I was very tempted today at purchasing at $1.09 which would have been one tick off the low, but the lower band of the flag is about $1.00, so I would have been looking at a 10% downside for my stop - too much risk with realistic upside at mini-resistance of $1.28, but the descending trendline of the flag much closer. I put an order in for $1.05 today, and obviously didn't get filled. Hopefully, we can get an order in the next few days or it gives us a nice drop to that bottom trendline.
URZ
This one requires a little more zoomed out picture to see the $1.71ish support. Its been used quite a bit to bounce off of a while ago, failed to hold, and then eventually broke back through, re-tested, and is now making a second retest. Added bonus is 50ma crossing 200ma, and both are meeting up right above that $1.71 support. I'm looking for an entry in the mid $1.70s, this looks to provide huge risk-to-reward ratio with upper resistance at $2.28ish its almost a 8:1 advantage. Actually now doing the math on this, I am mad I didn't even try to get filled today, I could have upticked to $1.77/$1.78 all morning and filled easily... hopefully I don't miss out on this.
ASTC Big Day
ASTC shot up right out of the gate this morning, whoever was putting out the big shares at the ask wasn't there this morning. I did see ISEG come in at various point in the day, specifically this $3.45 range where it closed at, but a ton of his share got eaten away at. Today's volume was huge and consistently big throughout the day. There hasn't been this much volume since the last mini-run up to the $3.65 resistance mark.
Below is the posted hourly chart over the last few weeks.
The $3.20 support held and was my entry. The ascending triangle did break down late last week, but I decided to give the $3.20 mark my trailing stop area. Today's action gets us back over the ascending triangle that has been building for quite some time. I'll probably look to use this as an indicator to get out if this, plus the mini-support at $3.39 doesn't hold. It sucks missing the HOD, at $3.58, but really, when are you ever going to hit it perfectly. The overall RSI14 is a measly 58, which gives me no indication that this stock is overbought, however, after a big "up day", I'm cautious about a slight pullback. I again do not have a electronic trailing stop on this, and am going to be watching it closely. If for some reason I can't give enough attention, I'll probably use that $3.39 as an exit.
Below is the posted hourly chart over the last few weeks.
The $3.20 support held and was my entry. The ascending triangle did break down late last week, but I decided to give the $3.20 mark my trailing stop area. Today's action gets us back over the ascending triangle that has been building for quite some time. I'll probably look to use this as an indicator to get out if this, plus the mini-support at $3.39 doesn't hold. It sucks missing the HOD, at $3.58, but really, when are you ever going to hit it perfectly. The overall RSI14 is a measly 58, which gives me no indication that this stock is overbought, however, after a big "up day", I'm cautious about a slight pullback. I again do not have a electronic trailing stop on this, and am going to be watching it closely. If for some reason I can't give enough attention, I'll probably use that $3.39 as an exit.
Monday, April 12, 2010
ASTC Update
Still holding this one, but it is somewhat making me nervous, perhaps that's a sign I should follow my gut and exit this position. Watching level II, ISEG seems to have a ton of shares at the ask that seems to prevent this from running. The stock does have some odd moving behavior and is pretty erratic on the hourly chart, I don't have a stop loss riding on this one, but definitely a mental stop will be in play on a break below $3.20 on some volume. I may re-evaluate an early exit in the $3.38ish range as its been showing some resistance in that area on the hourly. If it hits up there, I'll look to sell quickly, and hope it bounces back down and off the rising triangle to play again. This one is in my Roth IRA, so at least the funds will have settled.
FLOW
I kept an eye on this guy and saw it break through the $3.20 resistance that I wasn't sure how strong it really was after further analysis. It looks like I got faked out on that pull-back to just under $3.00 - but I wanted to ensure I didn't loose the profit I had already locked in. It was already a loss of money on the table on the drop from $3.19 to the sells at $3.06/$3.07. Its now in a mini-consolidation at $3.33-$3.39. I don't like the risk to reward here, as I don't trust the $3.20 as support to use as a stop-loss. I would consider using it as an entry to minimize the risk. Will be keeping it on radar.
FLOW
I kept an eye on this guy and saw it break through the $3.20 resistance that I wasn't sure how strong it really was after further analysis. It looks like I got faked out on that pull-back to just under $3.00 - but I wanted to ensure I didn't loose the profit I had already locked in. It was already a loss of money on the table on the drop from $3.19 to the sells at $3.06/$3.07. Its now in a mini-consolidation at $3.33-$3.39. I don't like the risk to reward here, as I don't trust the $3.20 as support to use as a stop-loss. I would consider using it as an entry to minimize the risk. Will be keeping it on radar.
Wednesday, April 7, 2010
ASTC Intent to Buy
ASTC
I added ASTC for a play off of support at $3.07ish, while this would have been a great entry two weeks ago, I missed it while on vacation. However, looking at the chart again, I can see an ascending triangle forming and today is hanging out right around there. Actually, as I am typing this I just got filled for 1,000 shares at $3.21... I originally entered in for $3.20, but there was a lot of bidders on L2, so I tick it up by a penny. Here is daily chart showing what I determine to be the support and resistance:
So, we have the $3.07 area as our stop area, which matches up with the 50-ma as well. This is 4.4% downside. The resistance and top of the ascending triangle is at $3.65 for 13.7% upside, or a 3-to-1 risk to reward. I've also increased my position size on this trade in attempt to dampen the commission's affect.
Now here is the hourly chart showing the bottom of the ascending triangle going to work. This is an uptrending stock and ascending triangle is supposed to be a continuation pattern, so that is what I am hoping for. I am not exactly sure if this is an ascending triangle, as the previous resistance line of $3.07 wasn't very strong, so I am just hoping for this pattern to continue, or at least to make it up to the $3.60ish area and I'll re-evaluate taking profits there.
I added ASTC for a play off of support at $3.07ish, while this would have been a great entry two weeks ago, I missed it while on vacation. However, looking at the chart again, I can see an ascending triangle forming and today is hanging out right around there. Actually, as I am typing this I just got filled for 1,000 shares at $3.21... I originally entered in for $3.20, but there was a lot of bidders on L2, so I tick it up by a penny. Here is daily chart showing what I determine to be the support and resistance:
So, we have the $3.07 area as our stop area, which matches up with the 50-ma as well. This is 4.4% downside. The resistance and top of the ascending triangle is at $3.65 for 13.7% upside, or a 3-to-1 risk to reward. I've also increased my position size on this trade in attempt to dampen the commission's affect.
Now here is the hourly chart showing the bottom of the ascending triangle going to work. This is an uptrending stock and ascending triangle is supposed to be a continuation pattern, so that is what I am hoping for. I am not exactly sure if this is an ascending triangle, as the previous resistance line of $3.07 wasn't very strong, so I am just hoping for this pattern to continue, or at least to make it up to the $3.60ish area and I'll re-evaluate taking profits there.
FLOW Triggered
Flow triggered my stop loss this morning selling at $3.06 and $3.07. I strayed from my original strategy of the $3.20ish target, but to be fair, the stock only hit $3.19 and it was very briefly at the end of day. I hold no open positions at this time, and my scans just aren't coming up with anything I like on a risk-to-reward ratio.
Tuesday, April 6, 2010
Closed AIS, Holding FLOW
AIS
AIS was looking really strong again today, hitting up the $1.74 mark, but, near the EOD, it looked like people locked in some profits. My trailing stop had crept up to $1.65 and the heavy end of day selling stopped me out. I felt like its run was over, but the sudden drop at the end was really fast. I guess its true that they fall quicker than they rise, and I'm not sure what I could have done to squeaked out more profits. Perhaps in future, raise this trailing stop to the intra-day support. For that, I was seeing $1.69 as the ultimate low, so perhaps a trailing stop to put me at $1.68 would have netted me another $40. Here is the 5-minute intraday chart. Its funny how yesterday's $1.65 and $1.60 held little meaning (although the $1.60 did bounce as support again) today.
I'll keep this on my alerts, and will see if we come back down to $1.55 and maybe try to play this as the new support range. Overall, this was a very successful trade and the trailing stop loss seemed to have worked out well. I don't think my position sizes are large enough that the market makers would be able to identify them as stop-losses, so I'll continue to tweak this method.
FLOW
This guy pulled back most of its last 15-minute gains from yesterday back to test the $3.10 area. This one is still holding, with current trailing stop loss poised to fire at $3.03, which I think is acceptable as I am seeing some intra-day support of previous temporary resistance at $3.05. A drop below there likely indicates we will retest the $2.85 area. Which I am not opposed to as I'd gladly attempt to play this one again.
AIS was looking really strong again today, hitting up the $1.74 mark, but, near the EOD, it looked like people locked in some profits. My trailing stop had crept up to $1.65 and the heavy end of day selling stopped me out. I felt like its run was over, but the sudden drop at the end was really fast. I guess its true that they fall quicker than they rise, and I'm not sure what I could have done to squeaked out more profits. Perhaps in future, raise this trailing stop to the intra-day support. For that, I was seeing $1.69 as the ultimate low, so perhaps a trailing stop to put me at $1.68 would have netted me another $40. Here is the 5-minute intraday chart. Its funny how yesterday's $1.65 and $1.60 held little meaning (although the $1.60 did bounce as support again) today.
I'll keep this on my alerts, and will see if we come back down to $1.55 and maybe try to play this as the new support range. Overall, this was a very successful trade and the trailing stop loss seemed to have worked out well. I don't think my position sizes are large enough that the market makers would be able to identify them as stop-losses, so I'll continue to tweak this method.
FLOW
This guy pulled back most of its last 15-minute gains from yesterday back to test the $3.10 area. This one is still holding, with current trailing stop loss poised to fire at $3.03, which I think is acceptable as I am seeing some intra-day support of previous temporary resistance at $3.05. A drop below there likely indicates we will retest the $2.85 area. Which I am not opposed to as I'd gladly attempt to play this one again.
Monday, April 5, 2010
Updated Charts and Strategies - AIS and FLOW
AIS
AIS gapped up and hung in the low $1.60s today, came close to just taking right off. The one thing I do not like is how the daily candle turned out. For some reason, its showing a high of the day at $2.00 which makes the daily chart hideous. I am hoping that does not kill the momentum, but we will see. I have a trailing stop at $1.58 right now which is just below the $1.60. I may move this to a manual stop for the morning, in case its volatile and low volume takes it below $1.58 for some reason. Although, in AH the bid is at $1.64.
Here is the support and resistance on the 15-minute intra-day charts that I am seeing. Watching the level II at both $1.60 support and $1.65 resistance, its clear these are both very strong. When we get to these points, the bid (or ask) sizes are in the 100k of share range which is a lot strong than any other area - it may have something to do with the nice round numbers. I'm tempted to exit at $1.65 because of the strong nature, but with the trailing stop, I'm somewhat okay with letting this play out.
FLOW
This one has now also played out as expected, we've bounced off support at $1.84ish and have now come back to resistance at $3.20. This was my target area for selling, but I haven't sold yet. I may be getting greedy and hoping it breaks out past $3.20. The reason I am hoping it breaks out is that I am not real confident in the strength of $3.20. Looking at the 60-minute chart, it almost looks like $3.07-$3.10 had been some area of resistance, which would mean my initial theory on target resistance was wrong.... I'm going to let this one play out a little longer as it is not that volatile, my trailing stop should be okay. I still have bigger hopes this can maybe trend upwards towards the $4.00 mark, but we'll see.
AIS gapped up and hung in the low $1.60s today, came close to just taking right off. The one thing I do not like is how the daily candle turned out. For some reason, its showing a high of the day at $2.00 which makes the daily chart hideous. I am hoping that does not kill the momentum, but we will see. I have a trailing stop at $1.58 right now which is just below the $1.60. I may move this to a manual stop for the morning, in case its volatile and low volume takes it below $1.58 for some reason. Although, in AH the bid is at $1.64.
Here is the support and resistance on the 15-minute intra-day charts that I am seeing. Watching the level II at both $1.60 support and $1.65 resistance, its clear these are both very strong. When we get to these points, the bid (or ask) sizes are in the 100k of share range which is a lot strong than any other area - it may have something to do with the nice round numbers. I'm tempted to exit at $1.65 because of the strong nature, but with the trailing stop, I'm somewhat okay with letting this play out.
FLOW
This one has now also played out as expected, we've bounced off support at $1.84ish and have now come back to resistance at $3.20. This was my target area for selling, but I haven't sold yet. I may be getting greedy and hoping it breaks out past $3.20. The reason I am hoping it breaks out is that I am not real confident in the strength of $3.20. Looking at the 60-minute chart, it almost looks like $3.07-$3.10 had been some area of resistance, which would mean my initial theory on target resistance was wrong.... I'm going to let this one play out a little longer as it is not that volatile, my trailing stop should be okay. I still have bigger hopes this can maybe trend upwards towards the $4.00 mark, but we'll see.
AIS, VICL updates
AIS
Looking nice again today, peaking at $1.67 so far - it says $1.69 but that must have been a quick one. As I mentioned, I entered a trailing stop this morning per plan - $.08 from a start of $1.62 and it has squeaked its way up to $1.58 which I'm happy with. There have been a few times I've been tempted to just get out of this position, but I'm going to test this trailing stop. If the trailing stop triggers down here, I'll probably be cursing at giving up another $60, but I'd really like to get an exit method down, and there are most days where I cannot pay very close attention to use manual stops.
VICL
This guy spiked back up to about $3.59 and I was thinking about re-entering as it does look like it may have reversed its previous course. My stop limit that triggered at $3.38 got blown through at the time on massive end-of-day volume. Since that time, its moved up on some very small volume and because of this, I decided to sit on the side lines. If it can re-establish a bigger base here at $3.50, I may look at it once again.
Looking nice again today, peaking at $1.67 so far - it says $1.69 but that must have been a quick one. As I mentioned, I entered a trailing stop this morning per plan - $.08 from a start of $1.62 and it has squeaked its way up to $1.58 which I'm happy with. There have been a few times I've been tempted to just get out of this position, but I'm going to test this trailing stop. If the trailing stop triggers down here, I'll probably be cursing at giving up another $60, but I'd really like to get an exit method down, and there are most days where I cannot pay very close attention to use manual stops.
VICL
This guy spiked back up to about $3.59 and I was thinking about re-entering as it does look like it may have reversed its previous course. My stop limit that triggered at $3.38 got blown through at the time on massive end-of-day volume. Since that time, its moved up on some very small volume and because of this, I decided to sit on the side lines. If it can re-establish a bigger base here at $3.50, I may look at it once again.
Thursday, April 1, 2010
AIS and FLOW Still Holding
AIS
Well, I didn't expect AIS to take off so quickly, but I'll take it! Reading a stock board I found a pasted article promoting AIS, which may have accounted for its spike. Regardless, it appears my theory of $1.35 support was correct. So now that we are at a $1.53 stock price, I need to re-evaluate my stop. The $1.28 stop is no longer an option. I'm tempted to tighten my stop pretty tight here, possibly bringing it up to the $1.48 support, maybe $1.46 to give it a little lee-way. I don't trust myself with a mental stop however. The reason I am planning this is because if it is going to get through $1.55, I need it to consolidate tightly underneath it, or just bust through on Monday. Falling back below that mini-support at $1.48 and we're likely heading back to $1.35 - which I'd be happy to try this again! See the 60-minute chart for further evidence of the $1.48 range being a good support/resistance target.
There were times today way I nearly sold based on some dips intra-day. I also modified my stop loss to $1.41 temporarily to lock in my profit on this trade. Never let a winning trade turn into a losing trade. The nice thing with this is even after the 12% spike, we still are only sitting at RSI14 of 66, not yet oversold. Which is why I would love for this to tighten up under $1.55 and then bust through and maybe giving us a potential breakout play. If that happens, I really don't have a plan and will have to wait for a sell-signal on the daily or intra-day candlesticks. At that point, I'll likely convert the stop limit to a trailing stop and let it run to test that method on a breakout. It sucks having to test-drive my exit strategies, but, only way to find out what works.
FLOW
An up day today, gaining a few more pennies. As previously mentioned, I've turned the stop limit into a trailing stop to lock in gains. Similar to AIS, hoping for a break past resistance at $3.20 - however, I don't think this has much strength here and should make it at least there, since we have added bonus as a gap-fill. We'll see how it plays out. This one is slowly rising to the mark which is what I think will be typical of these plays.
Well, I didn't expect AIS to take off so quickly, but I'll take it! Reading a stock board I found a pasted article promoting AIS, which may have accounted for its spike. Regardless, it appears my theory of $1.35 support was correct. So now that we are at a $1.53 stock price, I need to re-evaluate my stop. The $1.28 stop is no longer an option. I'm tempted to tighten my stop pretty tight here, possibly bringing it up to the $1.48 support, maybe $1.46 to give it a little lee-way. I don't trust myself with a mental stop however. The reason I am planning this is because if it is going to get through $1.55, I need it to consolidate tightly underneath it, or just bust through on Monday. Falling back below that mini-support at $1.48 and we're likely heading back to $1.35 - which I'd be happy to try this again! See the 60-minute chart for further evidence of the $1.48 range being a good support/resistance target.
There were times today way I nearly sold based on some dips intra-day. I also modified my stop loss to $1.41 temporarily to lock in my profit on this trade. Never let a winning trade turn into a losing trade. The nice thing with this is even after the 12% spike, we still are only sitting at RSI14 of 66, not yet oversold. Which is why I would love for this to tighten up under $1.55 and then bust through and maybe giving us a potential breakout play. If that happens, I really don't have a plan and will have to wait for a sell-signal on the daily or intra-day candlesticks. At that point, I'll likely convert the stop limit to a trailing stop and let it run to test that method on a breakout. It sucks having to test-drive my exit strategies, but, only way to find out what works.
FLOW
An up day today, gaining a few more pennies. As previously mentioned, I've turned the stop limit into a trailing stop to lock in gains. Similar to AIS, hoping for a break past resistance at $3.20 - however, I don't think this has much strength here and should make it at least there, since we have added bonus as a gap-fill. We'll see how it plays out. This one is slowly rising to the mark which is what I think will be typical of these plays.
FLOW Update
As I mentioned previously, I am attempting to utilize a trailing stop on this now that it sits at $3.05. I put a trailing stop order in for $0.15 at this level, and the "activation" price initially is set to $2.89, this removes my stop limit. A strong break below the $2.84 support level would be bad at this point, so I don't even want to get there.
FLOW
VICL was first position that I completed round-trip, but I also purchased FLOW on the same day. It came up on my scans and triggered an alert when it approached my determined support.
I liked this support range at around 2.84 for FLOW, as it had been prior resistance in the last year which broke through it in December. It bounced off of it a few times through December before making new highs in the $4 range. Since those highs, its trickled back down and has once again bounced off of this support range. On 3/30, I took the opportunity to grab shares here.
The stock dropped pretty hard on decently large volume on 3/31 so I didn't buy right away, but I watched it on the 15-minute chart and you can see it started to build a pretty good base in this area. Since it stabilized, I decided it was worth the risk. I grabbed 600 shares at $2.85.
Stop and Target
I've once again used a stop limit order and placed it at $2.70, this is about 5.3% downside protection. The target area of next resistance is at about $3.20 range. This gives a 12.8% upside, but I can also see it trying to break past that and showing next stops at around $3.45 and then the previous highs in the $4. So, while the initial trade is only about a 2.5:1 risk to reward, I feel this $2.85 support is a lot stronger than the one from VICL. If it strongly breaks through this resistance, I may even move up the trailing stop and give up on this trade.
Now that I am already up on this trade a few percent, I am looking at implementing some trailing stops to protect my gains. I'd hate to turn a profitable trade into a losing one. I may setup a trailing stop here at the $3 for $0.15, so if the stock does move up to that $3.20 resistance, I'll lock in a $3.05 sell price which would give me a small 7% gain. After commissions, that just gets eaten away.... I may need to increase my position sizes once I get this method down. $20 round-trip on $2k is 1% of profit lost to commissions!
I liked this support range at around 2.84 for FLOW, as it had been prior resistance in the last year which broke through it in December. It bounced off of it a few times through December before making new highs in the $4 range. Since those highs, its trickled back down and has once again bounced off of this support range. On 3/30, I took the opportunity to grab shares here.
The stock dropped pretty hard on decently large volume on 3/31 so I didn't buy right away, but I watched it on the 15-minute chart and you can see it started to build a pretty good base in this area. Since it stabilized, I decided it was worth the risk. I grabbed 600 shares at $2.85.
Stop and Target
I've once again used a stop limit order and placed it at $2.70, this is about 5.3% downside protection. The target area of next resistance is at about $3.20 range. This gives a 12.8% upside, but I can also see it trying to break past that and showing next stops at around $3.45 and then the previous highs in the $4. So, while the initial trade is only about a 2.5:1 risk to reward, I feel this $2.85 support is a lot stronger than the one from VICL. If it strongly breaks through this resistance, I may even move up the trailing stop and give up on this trade.
Now that I am already up on this trade a few percent, I am looking at implementing some trailing stops to protect my gains. I'd hate to turn a profitable trade into a losing one. I may setup a trailing stop here at the $3 for $0.15, so if the stock does move up to that $3.20 resistance, I'll lock in a $3.05 sell price which would give me a small 7% gain. After commissions, that just gets eaten away.... I may need to increase my position sizes once I get this method down. $20 round-trip on $2k is 1% of profit lost to commissions!
AIS
This is another attempt at buying down near support on an uptrending stock. AIS has had a nice run over the last year and had traded between $1.00 and $1.30 for about 6 months prior to breaking in early March. That run got it up to a high of $1.55, it has now drifted back down to the $1.35 previous resistance which I had marked as our new support level.
I must not have been paying attention on 3/30, as we did touch down on the support and I missed it. But on 3/31, I was watching more closely and received another bounce that pretty much solidified my theory. I purchased 1400 shares at $1.36 as it was making a strong case for $1.35 as support off the 15-minute chart.
Targets and Stops
The next minor resistance is at $1.48 and then the 52-week high of $1.55. So, the $1.48 is the immediate goal, but I don't think it is that strong as it hasn't had much time to develop, the volume up to $1.55 is also relatively small, so my overall target is the $1.55 area. My stop on this one is with the minor resistance around $1.28 which also coincides with the 50-ma. This gives 14% upside to 5.8% downside or basically a 3:1 risk to reward. The added benefit is the potential for a breakout past $1.55, but I don't want to give that too much leeway because it could just as easily bounce off of there and glide back down to this $1.35 level.
I must not have been paying attention on 3/30, as we did touch down on the support and I missed it. But on 3/31, I was watching more closely and received another bounce that pretty much solidified my theory. I purchased 1400 shares at $1.36 as it was making a strong case for $1.35 as support off the 15-minute chart.
Targets and Stops
The next minor resistance is at $1.48 and then the 52-week high of $1.55. So, the $1.48 is the immediate goal, but I don't think it is that strong as it hasn't had much time to develop, the volume up to $1.55 is also relatively small, so my overall target is the $1.55 area. My stop on this one is with the minor resistance around $1.28 which also coincides with the 50-ma. This gives 14% upside to 5.8% downside or basically a 3:1 risk to reward. The added benefit is the potential for a breakout past $1.55, but I don't want to give that too much leeway because it could just as easily bounce off of there and glide back down to this $1.35 level.
Wednesday, March 31, 2010
My First Setup - VICL
I found this stock from a stock board and played it previously on a breakout attempt from the 3.50s to the 4.00s. It was a quick trade and made a small percentage gain, but I didn't really have sound entry/exit points, sort of just bought the stock on a 'hot tip'. Few weeks later, and the same stock had come up on my radar. Below is the larger frame picture:
The Plan
The play was to buy the stock around support at about 3.48 range - this was not a hard resistance line, but a general area of support. On 3/30, I purchase 500 shares for 3.51, and created a stop limit for 3.40 activation with 3.37 limit. This gave me a 4% downside. The next stop for this stock to me would eventually be back in the 4.10 region, this is the area where I had planned to sell which was about a 16% upside, thus, I entered the trade seeing a potential 4:1 risk to reward ratio. The stock was liquid enough that my 500 shares would easily be disposed of at any time.
Outcome
Both yesterday and today my stop loss came very close to triggering and I almost removed it so the shares didn't sell, however, the reason behind that stop was it was the location of both the 50ma and 200ma, which I was hoping would provide some support. A break-through that seemed to be to a bearish sign. Things were looking good early Wednesday afternoon as we glided up to 3.55 putting me back positive and seeing some decent size trades eating up shares on the ask. However, in the last 15-minutes, things deteriorated. The stock was soon flirting again with my stop loss and eventually triggered. I exited my position at 3.38 for an $85 loss with commissions.
Conclusion
My support line was not correct, or at least didn't hold up this time around. Its disappointing to have my first trade go against me, however, I am very satisfied with keeping to the stop and exiting the trade at a very minimal loss. I don't know if I could have done anything different, I stuck to my theory and stop losses and that's all I can ask for.
The next area of support I see is in the low 3.2x's. If the stock can find a bottom in that area, or establish a base somewhere else, it might be worth a second look. However, I do not like it being below the 50ma and 200ma. It has been able to ignore these trends in the past, so we will have to see. I still like this to try to get back up to the $4.00 mark again, so I may give it a try again soon.
The Plan
The play was to buy the stock around support at about 3.48 range - this was not a hard resistance line, but a general area of support. On 3/30, I purchase 500 shares for 3.51, and created a stop limit for 3.40 activation with 3.37 limit. This gave me a 4% downside. The next stop for this stock to me would eventually be back in the 4.10 region, this is the area where I had planned to sell which was about a 16% upside, thus, I entered the trade seeing a potential 4:1 risk to reward ratio. The stock was liquid enough that my 500 shares would easily be disposed of at any time.
Outcome
Both yesterday and today my stop loss came very close to triggering and I almost removed it so the shares didn't sell, however, the reason behind that stop was it was the location of both the 50ma and 200ma, which I was hoping would provide some support. A break-through that seemed to be to a bearish sign. Things were looking good early Wednesday afternoon as we glided up to 3.55 putting me back positive and seeing some decent size trades eating up shares on the ask. However, in the last 15-minutes, things deteriorated. The stock was soon flirting again with my stop loss and eventually triggered. I exited my position at 3.38 for an $85 loss with commissions.
Conclusion
My support line was not correct, or at least didn't hold up this time around. Its disappointing to have my first trade go against me, however, I am very satisfied with keeping to the stop and exiting the trade at a very minimal loss. I don't know if I could have done anything different, I stuck to my theory and stop losses and that's all I can ask for.
The next area of support I see is in the low 3.2x's. If the stock can find a bottom in that area, or establish a base somewhere else, it might be worth a second look. However, I do not like it being below the 50ma and 200ma. It has been able to ignore these trends in the past, so we will have to see. I still like this to try to get back up to the $4.00 mark again, so I may give it a try again soon.
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