Thursday, April 29, 2010

URZ - Ouch

I stopped out of this one, I gave it more leeway then I wanted.... mistake.  Out at $1.62 about, $300 loss.  Doesn't feel good, but hopefully it was the right choice.  It dropped to $1.54, but is rebounding slightly now.  Just way too heavy of a sell-off.  I really liked this one for the upside too.  I'll have to re-evaluate the chart to see if there is something I should have seen.  For one, my first instinct of $1.71 support was where I should have tried entering as opposed to $1.76, but the risk to reward was good I thought.  I just didn't exit where I said I would.  I don't think I had much of a chance once it did break $1.71. Pissed off....

Wednesday, April 28, 2010

TLR - Updated Chart

Well, the little pause in volume at which I sold my half position turned out to be a good choice in that I did not simply exit the entire thing.  This whole setup was a pennant/flag continuation pattern which to me screamed to break to the upside.  However, it very well could have bounced from this point and waited longer to breakout.  I don't mind locking in profits when I did, especially on the order of a few hundred, so I can't complain, but the stock took off up to $1.33 and closed pretty much at the high of the day.  Here is the updated chart.


So to reiterate the rational, the green solid line was support and the red overhead was the resistance trends of the pennant I had drawn up.  The horizontal black dash lines were additional areas I deemed support.  My entry was when the two touched together at $1.05.

The next area of resistance I can see is actually where we are sitting right now in the $1.31-$1.34 area.  I'm going to give it a little room, but seeing as we are now also outside the upper bollinger band that typically is not sustainable.  The past large moves seem to indicate that a slight pullback may be in order.  I'll give it a chance to gap up tomorrow and run a little further, but I plan to have a short leash on this tomorrow.  I am hoping for another solid green candle at which point I'd probably cut my risk and get out.  I won't have access to the markets except on my phone tomorrow so, I might toss in either a stop-loss or trailing-stop on this guy.

URZ

Pretty quiet, holding on pretty good to this $1.71 support I pegged initially.  Why didn't I just wait until support?  

TLR - Sold Half the Position

I sold half of the position this afternoon at $1.20 as it starts hitting its head up on that overhanging trend line.  There is a ton of volume right now, but its got potential to bounce off of this line and trickle back down.  Decided to lock in some profits as the buying slowed up.  So total shares sold was 1400.

MGI

Wow, that was good exit on my part.  That daily candle was just shaping up to show so much weakness I felt... glad I went with my instinct.  Turned a $200 profit into $30, but definitely saved myself from a $150 loss.....

Tuesday, April 27, 2010

Closed MGI - Holding others...

MGI 
 
Haven't had much time for the markets lately, really ugly day today overall I must say.  MGI was looking great today and I thought I had nailed another one, but its fun was short lived.  After reaching a intra-day high of $3.51, it sunk back to the mid $3.30s by end of day.  I was getting trigger happy at about $3.40 and should have fired there, but by days end the candle looks horrible to me.  It seems to indicate that the $3.40-$3.50 mark was rejected heavily, and its come back down.  I decided I didn't want to hold this for tomorrow, and to get out while I could.  I closed at $3.35.  Another fact for me selling this is that earnings are coming on Friday.  Earnings completely throw out most TA out the window.  A big gap down could just crush my account, and I'm not here to gamble.  I should have investigated that before buying into this.  So, I'm out with a $30 gain, sad when was close to $200 at one point.

TLR

TLR pulled back yesterday after its nice surge and grabbed some of it back today.  I'm still liking this one to hopefully try to test the upper trendline, and will make a decision there as to how strong it looks.

URZ

Not looking so hot, but it did come back to bounce out of that low $1.70 range.  I'm sitting at a loss on this one and it doesn't have much more room to go lower before I'm bailing.

Friday, April 23, 2010

MGI - Second Chance at Entry

This is looking really good as an entry point again, I think I am going to jump in here, just want to see it stabilize a bit and then going in for about 1k shares here.

UPDATE:
Looking good, lots of bids at $3.29 and $3.28, $3.30 supply is slowly grinding down, I'm in for 1000 at $3.30.

So, to make sure I have a plan, my exit is going to be the 50ma which is right around $3.21, but a break of this trendline will have me itching to dump this.  The horizontal and ascending trenline are meeting up almost perfect here so a break of one is pretty much the break of both which would be bad.  So, that is about a 3.3% downside loss. Our short term goal is to reach the $3.80 range, but will have to watch this closely.  It tried to get past the $3.44 range this week but ran into trouble.  If it stalls there, I may bail depending on the date... I'll let the ascending trendline help as support and a decision for exiting the position.

Observations so far this Morning

TLR

Strong volume so far, perhaps making the next leg up.  Close to approaching the 10% mark on this one, but there is still quite a bit of room to run, the strong volume is encouraging as well.

URZ

Trickling back down to entry price, kind of hurts, but, this would be a good entry again.  Flipping this from $1.76 to $1.84 could net some 5% gains or so or a few hundred off of my position size.  Since I'm trading mostly in my Roth IRA, I'd have issues with settled funds I think.  I'll just hold on while this one holds to my support.  The upside is big on this one in my opinion.

FLOW

My friend FLOW - kind of makes me sick seeing this one.  I went back and looked at the charts to see what I could have done differently.  The only thing I can think of is turning these into longer holds until my thesis played out.  But the two candles that shook me out did look like weakness in all fairness.  But man, this could have been a big gainer.

ASTC

Wow, this one fell hard.  All those black body candles were a warning sign in my opinion and I am glad I nailed my exit at a pretty good point.  Could be worth watching a little more, but that ascending trendline is broken now, which kind of throws off my original trade entry criteria.  I'll be watching this at the support levels of $3.20 and $3.05 as potential re-entries if it trickles down or on a really hard fall.

Thursday, April 22, 2010

Quiet - Still holding TLR, URZ

Not much to update, both are still in this bottom area holding onto support.  Today was an odd day in the markets where it looked like I was going to have to bail on these, but they came back.  I haven't been able to be watching the markets all that much, so I am enjoying these plays just riding out.

Haven't done scans last few days either, today was probably a good day to find some that may have trickled down to support levels.  Will wait for the weekend and go through the exchanges.